Where the market’s at
- REINZ stats: Auckland City median up approx 9.4% month-on-month (August vs July) — though sales volume was down approx 15–16% on the same period last year.
- Auckland region overall up approx 1.6% month-on-month.
- Worth a quick definitional aside: “Auckland City” is bigger than people think — from Penrose across to the edge of the Harbour Bridge, taking in St Heliers, Mt Roskill, Hillsborough etc. Not just the CBD.
- The feel on the ground: properties “with a lawn” (i.e. standalone homes with land) are seeing real competition right now. However there is still no urgency with many home buyers treading carefully, as uncertainty over elections and job security linger.
The real test — actual sales vs. the algorithm
I thought it would be interesting to have a quick look at some actual examples of homes where we had completed an online/desktop valuation. Interestingly most sold at higher prices than the estimation. The big difference, anecdotally feels like to me is around the area and the lawn. It seems anything with even a little land holds up well, especially in more central areas. This makes sense when you consider that over the long term, developers are not creating these. In fact in most parts of the city developers are actively taking these and reducing the sections per site.
Why desktop valuations lag
Online estimations and CV’s are guesswork only. Especially if the market takes an upward turn, as desktops valuations are backward looking – historical sales over previous months. So expect the guesswork to be trailing the market. If you are out there searching and feel like the market reality does not match up to the hype – trust the real data. Look at the sales happening right now, trust this more than online algorithms. If you keep missing out – stay positive as its a learning curve and you might be getting ahead of the pack in understanding where the price sits.
