The reserve Bank held the rate last week and mentioned a couple of things which could affect the next move. Any downward movement would be justified by factors including a further slowdown in activity within the tradable sector. If exporters suffer due to a stronger NZ dollar or farmers, due to further falls in diary prices, we could see pressure for a downward move.
The factors making a rate cut less likely in December include continued strength in the services and construction sector along with with the strength in the Auckland housing market.
The key message from the Reserve Bank was that further cuts in the OCR seems likely but will depend on the emerging flow of economic data. It looks like a December rate cut might seem more likely with a strengthening NZ dollar.
In saying that, the recent 4.49% 3 year rate from ASB is fairly low for kiwis.
Upcoming Key dates
10/12/2015 OCR Announcement
28/01/2016 OCR Announcement
