For the past year (or more), the market has felt flat. The latest REINZ January vs last January comparison suggests we may be seeing the early signs of movement — but it’s uneven and highly location-specific.
What’s happening in the main centres (year-on-year)
The median house price numbers released by REINZ shows broadly that January compared to last January is up, however in most areas January compared to December is down. The holiday period can skew the numbers a bit. It does seem the theme is similar to the previous year, a stable steady housing market.
- Auckland:+1.1% YoY(year on year) overall, with growth in Franklin, Manukau City, and a notable +8.7% in Auckland City.
- But: month-on-month medians are down, and the last five years still look like peak → drop → long flatline.
- Waikato (Hamilton): marginally up YoY, but down month-on-month.
- Canterbury (Christchurch): the standout over the last five years — a smaller correction and held up better than most regions.
- Christchurch City: +7.5% YoY, though down month-on-month.
- Wellington: broadly down, with some brighter pockets like Upper Hutt and the Kapiti Coast.
The “hidden nuggets” with more consistent momentum
If you’re looking for areas that are up both month-on-month and year-on-year, smaller centres are leading:
- Rotorua: roughly +3.4% Month on month and +2% YoY
- Hawke’s Bay (Napier City): positive MoM 7.3% and YoY growth 7.3%
What this means right now
- Buyers are spoiled for choice. With prices off the lows but still relatively flat, conditions are generally more buyer-friendly than seller-friendly.
- A flat market is predictable, which helps if you’re:
- buying your first home, or
- selling and upgrading (because you can make decisions with less pressure).
- You can take time to compare options, negotiate, and do due diligence properly.
Next step
If you want to move in this environment (or even just sense-check timing and borrowing strategy), it’s a good time to sit down with a financial adviser and map out a plan.
