The RBNZ held the rates steady but are we approaching a cross road? There could be a future where a rate cut will be needed as much as a rate hike.
House prices and our exchange rate were identified as two possible rogues which could step out of line with the RBNZ’s central projection.
Interest rates over the past 12 months
If the tempo of the house market remained upbeat for longer it could lead to more households hitting party mood with their spending. This could warrant a tighter grip on the interest rate lever and maybe even a pull up response.
As our farmers make the chilly morning track, carrying the burden of lower diary prices, the pesky strong NZD makes the movement towards break even harder still. If the love for our NZD gets even more passionate, a lowering of our interest rate would seem appropriate to cool down the romance.
Which future will play out for longer is anyones guess but if both played out, the interest rate mechanism alone would be impossible to use as a steering mechanism.
A few things that you might have to do along with dropping or increasing the rate:
1. Make it a bit more restrictive for home owners to use their houses like credit cards
2. Create a different rate for lending on farms
3. Skew banking funding away from houses and towards business activity (trickier said than done as there is a lot of small business owners already using their house as security for business lending)
The risk ahead for our rate
The RBNZ held the rates steady but are we approaching a cross road? There could be a future where a rate cut will be needed as much as a rate hike.
House prices and our exchange rate were identified as two possible rogues which could step out of line with the RBNZ’s central projection.
If the tempo of the house market remained upbeat for longer it could lead to more households hitting party mood with their spending. This could warrant a tighter grip on the interest rate lever and maybe even a pull up response.
As our farmers make the chilly morning track, carrying the burden of lower diary prices, the pesky strong NZD makes the movement towards break even harder still. If the love for our NZD gets even more passionate, a lowering of our interest rate would seem appropriate to cool down the romance.
Which future will play out for longer is anyones guess but if both played out, the interest rate mechanism alone would be impossible to use as a steering mechanism.
A few things that you might have to do along with dropping or increasing the rate:
1. Make it a bit more restrictive for home owners to use their houses like credit cards
2. Create a different rate for lending on farms
3. Skew banking funding away from houses and towards business activity (trickier said than done as there is a lot of small business owners already using their house as security for business lending)
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
This article has been written by Hamish Patel, mortgage broker with mortgagesonline.co.nz. Ph: 09 625 4693, Mobile: 021 625 693, hamish@monline.co.nz
More Posts
The annual costs of owning a home in Auckland
The annual expenses for owning a home in Auckland will be over $10,000 in most cases once you start to take into account some associated
How many properties investments do I need?
What if you could retire with $2 million? Getting to $2,000,000 in retirement seems within reach with the right kind of planning – we study
Auckland Prices Where Is The Move
Where the market’s at The real test — actual sales vs. the algorithm I thought it would be interesting to have a quick look at
How can buying that Rx3/Skyline(a dream car) make financial sense?
I sat down with a couple recently who wanted to talk about their interest rates, retirement was not even on the horizon. By the time
Send Us A Message