Real estate trends are showing dynamic shifts in house prices across different towns. Digging deep into the REINZ median house price data reveals some fantastic opportunities.
While median house prices offer some insight, it’s crucial to understand that the limitations of the stats. The numbers of houses sold is an important factor, smaller sample sizes can be skewed easily by a few big sales. Also be mindful of the fact that the median is across many housing types. In some areas houses with a lawn could be pulling up the numbers will new build townhouses might be a drag.
With that in mind lets consider some quick takeaways from the riveting clip above.
Movers in Auckland
Auckland City(7.8%), Manukau(1.5%)and Waitakere(7.5%) are showing signs of life with a clear increase in the median price, November compared to October. These figures from REINZ also include contracts entered into but not settled, so it gives us a very current pulse of the housing market.
Waipa(5.6%), Waikato(4.9%) and Matamata-Piako(13%) are the top three movements up on the month on month for Waikato. It is interesting to note Taupo a popular holiday destination also saw a positive increase of 3.8%.
South Wairarapa(15.5%), Carterton(10.3%) and Porirua(5.9%) were the biggest movers in the Wellington Region. Wellington City itself posted an increase of .5%.
Ashburton(12%) and Christchurch(4.4%) up last month. Interestingly Christchurch posts a 5.2% higher median, year on year. Most other major centers were flat or negative when compared to last year.
Time will tell if this was the bottom of the market. If interest rates remain stable and credit criteria opens up, there could be steady positive movements.
It is important to note the positive movements recorded was during a period where the new government was likely but not fully formed. On the horizon are other factors which could have a big influence.
- Debt to income ratios, the current implied settings might not have a big impact(may come in during the new year). This could however mean that increases in house prices are weighed down. Multiple property ownership might become only for those with strong cashflow.
- Supply increases. We are seeing a record number of houses being completed, 1,927 CCC issued in September. However building consents are 20% down this September compared to last September.
- If interest rates start to fall a lot, loan repayments look a lot better
- New changes in tenancy rules and tax settings are positive for investors
- Immigration places pressure on rent